Table 2 Risk assessment for the effects of fire–climate interactions in dry coniferous forest and woodlands, low to mid elevation (east-side Cascades, southern Idaho, drier areas of Rocky Mountains, USA), for the mid to late twenty-first century. Likelihood and confidence are rated low, moderate, and high. Low likelihood represents consequences that are unlikely (approximately 0 to 33% probability), moderate likelihood represents consequences that are about as likely as not (approximately 33 to 66% probability), high likelihood represents consequences that are likely to very likely (approximately 66 to 100% probability). Low confidence is characterized by low scientific agreement and limited evidence, whereas high confidence is characterized by high scientific agreement and robust evidence, with moderate confidence falling between those two extremes
From: Changing wildfire, changing forests: the effects of climate change on fire regimes and vegetation in the Pacific Northwest, USA
Fire–climate interaction
|
Magnitude of consequences
|
Likelihood of consequences
|
Confidence
|
---|
Wildfire frequency
|
Large increase
|
High
|
High
|
Wildfire extent
|
Large increase
|
High
|
High
|
Wildfire severity
|
Large increase in areas with elevated fuel loading
|
High
|
High
|
Reburns
|
Moderate increase
|
Moderate
|
Moderate
|
Stress interactions
|
Large increase
|
High
|
High
|
Regeneration
|
Low to high decrease, depending on site
|
Moderate
|
Moderate
|