Table 3 Risk assessment for the effects of fire–climate interactions in subalpine coniferous forest and woodland, high elevation (including aspen; all US Pacific Northwest mountain ranges), for the mid to late twenty-first century. Likelihood and confidence are rated low, moderate, and high. Low likelihood represents consequences that are unlikely (approximately 0 to 33% probability), moderate likelihood represents consequences that are about as likely as not (approximately 33 to 66% probability), high likelihood represents consequences that are likely to very likely (approximately 66 to 100% probability). Low confidence is characterized by low scientific agreement and limited evidence, whereas high confidence is characterized by high scientific agreement and robust evidence, with moderate confidence falling between those two extremes
From: Changing wildfire, changing forests: the effects of climate change on fire regimes and vegetation in the Pacific Northwest, USA
Fire–climate interaction
|
Magnitude of consequences
|
Likelihood of consequences
|
Confidence
|
---|
Wildfire frequency
|
Moderate increase
|
Moderate
|
High
|
Wildfire extent
|
Moderate increase
|
Moderate
|
Moderate
|
Wildfire severity
|
No change to small increase
|
Low
|
Moderate
|
Reburns
|
No change to small increase
|
Low
|
Moderate
|
Stress interactions
|
Small increase
|
Moderate
|
Moderate
|
Regeneration
|
Variable, depending on fire size
|
Moderate
|
Moderate
|