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Table 12 Descriptive summaries of our visual evaluations, using the maps in Additional file 2, of the presence of regional patterns in fire-scale model prediction error, from this study of post-fire tree mortality models from the USA, from fires occurring from 1981 to 2016. Models are defined in Tables 5 and 6

From: A large database supports the use of simple models of post-fire tree mortality for thick-barked conifers, with less support for other species

Model

Direction or errors

Regional patterns in errors

Abies concolor − R-A

Errors in both directions

Consistently under-predicts mortality west of the Oregon Cascades

Abies concolor − Pre-fire

Under-predicts to accurate in most fires

Consistently under-predicts mortality west of the Oregon Cascades

Abies grandis − R-A

Under-predicts to accurate in most fires

No obvious spatial pattern

Abies lasiocarpa − R-A

Accurate in most fires

No obvious pattern

Calocedrus decurrens − R-A

Over-predicts to accurate in most fires

No obvious pattern

Calocedrus decurrens − Pre-fire

Under-predicts to accurate in most fires

Not enough spatial variation in fire locations to assess spatial patterns

Larix occidentalis − R-A

Errors in both directions

No obvious pattern

Pinus contorta − R-A

Errors in both directions

Under-predicts in the western part of the species’ range, and over-predicts in the eastern part of the species’ range

Pinus contorta − Pre-fire

Under-predicts to accurate in most fires

Higher model accuracy in eastern part of species’ range

Picea engelmannii − R-A

Errors in both directions

No obvious pattern

Picea engelmannii − Pre-fire

Errors in both directions

Higher model accuracy in northern part of species’ range within the USA

Pinus jeffreyi − R-A

Small errors in both directions

No obvious pattern

Pinus lambertiana − R-A

Under-predicts to accurate in most fires

No obvious pattern

Pinus lambertiana − Pre-fire

Accurate in most fires

Not enough spatial variation in fire locations to assess spatial patterns

Pinus ponderosa − R-A

Errors in both directions

Under-predicts more often in western Oregon and Washington, and over-predicts more often in eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, Idaho, and Montana. No obvious pattern of direction of errors in the Intermountain Region and southwestern USA.

Pinus ponderosa − Pre-fire

Under-predicts in most fires

Under-predicts more strongly in western Oregon and Washington, and is accurate more often in eastern Oregon, eastern Washington, Idaho, and Montana. No obvious pattern of direction of errors in the Intermountain Region and southwestern USA.

Pinus ponderosa − Pre-fire Black Hills

Errors in both directions

No obvious pattern

Populus tremuloides − R-A

Errors in both directions

No obvious pattern

Pseudotsuga menziesii − R-A

Errors in both directions

Model is more accurate in Pacific Northwest and Northern Rocky Mountains than in the Sierra Nevada and Southwest

Pseudotsuga menziesii − Pre-fire

Errors in both directions

No obvious pattern

Quercus gambelii − R-A

Errors in both directions

Under-predicts in southern Utah and over-predicts in Arizona and New Mexico

Tsuga heterophylla − R-A

Slightly under-predicts in most fires

No obvious pattern