A large database supports the use of simple models of post-fire tree mortality for thick-barked conifers, with less support for other species

Cansler, C. Alina; Hood, Sharon M.; van Mantgem, Phillip J.; Varner, J. Morgan

doi:10.1186/s42408-020-00082-0

Fire Ecology

Table 13 The direction of error in model predictions by species evaluated, from this study of post-fire tree mortality models from the USA, from fires occurring from 1981 to 2016. Data used to evaluate post-fire tree mortality models are from the USA, from fires occurring from 1981 to 2016. Models are defined in Tables 5 and 6; R-A = Ryan and Amman model, which can be applied to many species; Pre-fire models predict morality after fire based on predictors available before fire; Post-fire models predict morality after fire based on predictors available after fire. Criteria for assigning qualitative descriptors of frequency of under-prediction and over-prediction are defined in Table 7

From: A large database supports the use of simple models of post-fire tree mortality for thick-barked conifers, with less support for other species

Under-predicts	Over-predicts
	Rarely		Sometimes		Often		Always
	Species	Model	Species	Model	Species	Model	Species	Model
Often	Abies amabilis	R-A
	Pinus palustris	Pre-fire
	Populus tremuloides	Pre-fire low
Sometimes	Abies magnifica	Pre-fire
	Picea engelmannii	R-A
	Pinus coulteri	R-A
	Pinus ponderosa	Post-fire scorch
	Populus tremuloides	Pre-fire moderate
	Tsuga heterophylla	R-A
Rarely	Abies concolor	R-A	Pinus edulis	R-A	Abies magnifica	R-A	Abies lasiocarpa	Post-fire
	Abies concolor	Pre-fire	Pinus palustris	R-A	Calocedrus decurrens	R-A	Acer rubrum	R-A
	Abies concolor	Post-fire	Populus deltoides ssp. wislizeni	R-A	Juniperus osteosperma	R-A	Cornus nuttallii	R-A
	Abies grandis	R-A					Juniperus deppeana	R-A
	Abies lasiocarpa	R-A			Larix occidentalis	R-A	Juniperus occidentalis	R-A
	Abies lasiocarpa	Pre-fire			Pinus albicaulis	R-A	Juniperus scopulorum	R-A
	Calocedrus decurrens	Pre-fire			Pinus flexilis	R-A	Notholithocarpus densiflorus	R-A
	Chamaecyparis lawsoniana	R-A			Pinus ponderosa	R-A	Oxydendrum arboreum	R-A
	Larix occidentalis	Pre-fire			Quercus kelloggii	R-A	Pinus elliottii	R-A
	Larix occidentalis	Post-fire					Pinus strobiformis	R-A
	Picea engelmannii	Pre-fire					Pinus virginiana	R-A
	Picea engelmannii	Post-fire					Quercus alba	R-A
	Pinus albicaulis	Pre-fire					Quercus gambelii	R-A
	Pinus attenuata	R-A					Quercus garryana	R-A
	Pinus contorta	R-A					Quercus montana	R-A
	Pinus contorta	Pre-fire					Tsuga mertensiana	R-A
	Pinus contorta	Post-fire
	Pinus echinata	R-A
	Pinus jeffreyi	R-A
	Pinus lambertiana	R-A
	Pinus lambertiana	Pre-fire
	Pinus lambertiana	Post-fire
	Pinus monticola	R-A
	Pinus ponderosa	Pre-fire
	Pinus ponderosa	Pre-fire Black Hills
	Pinus ponderosa	Post-fire kill
	Pinus taeda	R-A
	Populus tremuloides	R-A
	Pseudotsuga menziesii	R-A
	Pseudotsuga menziesii	Pre-fire
	Pseudotsuga menziesii	Post-fire
	Thuja plicata	R-A

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