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Fig. 6 | Fire Ecology

Fig. 6

From: Do early trends in oak barrens fire treatment predict later outcomes? Insights from three decades of vegetation monitoring

Fig. 6

Forecast analysis for parameters of woody strata at fire-treatment (GCB) and fire-free control (FSB) units of the Gibbons Creek Barrens Natural Area, Pope County, Illinois, USA. Shown are observed results from estimation (1989 to 1995) and forecast periods (1996 to 2017), left and right of vertical line, respectively, with the fit from forecast analysis using Holt’s linear trend exponential smoothing model (Holt 1957) and the upper 95% confidence limit (UCL) and lower 95% confidence limit (LCL). (A) Estimation and forecast trends for tree density (woody stems ≥5 cm DBH per 0.05 ha) at GCB; (B) estimation and forecast trends for tree density at FSB; (C) estimation and forecast trends for tree basal area (m2 per 0.05 ha) at GCB; (D) estimation and forecast trends for tree basal area at FSB ; (E) estimation and forecast trends for shrub-sapling density (woody stems <5 cm DBH, ≥50 cm in height per 0.005 ha) at GCB; (F) estimation and forecast trends for shrub-sapling density at FSB. Fire treatments at GCB occurred on 27 November 1989, 16 March 1994, 3 April 1997, 2 March 2006, and 19 March 2010

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