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Fire Ecology
Fig. 8 | Fire Ecology

Fig. 8

From: Do early trends in oak barrens fire treatment predict later outcomes? Insights from three decades of vegetation monitoring

Fig. 8

Forecast analysis for graminoid species groups at fire-treatment (GCB) and fire-free control (FSB) units of the Gibbons Creek Barrens Natural Area, Pope County, Illinois, USA. Shown are observed results from estimation (1989 to 1995) and forecast periods (1996 to 2019), left and right of vertical line, respectively, with the fit from forecast analysis using Holt’s linear trend exponential smoothing model (Holt 1957) and the upper 95% confidence limit (UCL) and lower 95% confidence limit (LCL). (A) Estimation and forecast trends for percent C4 grass cover (per 0.25 m2) at GCB; (B) estimation and forecast trends for percent C4 grass cover at FSB; (C) estimation and forecast trends for percent C3 grass cover (per 0.25 m2) at GCB; (D) estimation and forecast trends for percent C3 grass cover at FSB; (E) estimation and forecast trends for percent sedge cover (per 0.25 m2) at GCB; (F) estimation and forecast trends for percent sedge cover at FSB. Fire treatments at GCB occurred on 27 November 1989, 16 March 1994, 3 April 1997, 2 March 2006, and 19 March 2010

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