Fig. 2

Prediction probabilities of generalized linear mixed model used to predict ponderosa pine seedling establishment (presence/absence) in ten fires surveyed in Arizona and New Mexico, USA, in 2018 and 2019. Solid blue lines are the marginal effects of each predictor while other covariates are held at their mean. Blue shaded ribbon represents the 95% confidence interval of predicted values. Ponderosa pine seedling presence is more likely on (A) steep northern aspects, (B) areas with less oak cover, (C) convex terrain, and (D) higher elevations. See Additional file 2 for graphs with observed data