Fire interval and post-fire climate effects on serotinous forest resilience

Agne, Michelle C.; Fontaine, Joseph B.; Enright, Neal J.; Harvey, Brian J.

doi:10.1186/s42408-022-00145-4

Fire Ecology

Table 3 Model output from generalized linear mixed models of seed supply (fire interval and pre-fire canopy seedbank) and covariate effects on three measures of post-fire regeneration. Estimated effects for each predictor are standardized effect sizes (per two standard deviations)

From: Fire interval and post-fire climate effects on serotinous forest resilience

Post-fire seedling density ~ Fire interval + post-fire CMD + shrub cover + soil clay content + HLI \| sample fire
		95% CI
Predictor	β	Lower	Upper	Z	p
Intercept	8.912	8.624	9.201	60.47	< 0.001
Fire interval	2.555	1.945	3.165	8.21	< 0.001
Post-fire CMD	−0.882	−1.758	−0.005	−1.97	0.049
Shrub cover	−0.077	−0.804	0.650	−0.21	0.836
Soil clay content	−0.529	−1.262	0.205	−1.41	0.158
HLI	0.301	−0.359	0.962	0.89	0.372
Post-fire seedling density ~ Pre-fire canopy seed bank + post-fire CMD + shrub cover + depth to bedrock + TPI \| sample fire
		95% CI
Predictor	β	Lower	Upper	Z	p
Intercept	9.001	8.783	9.218	81.13	< 0.001
Pre-fire canopy seed bank	2.678	2.311	3.046	14.29	< 0.001
Post-fire CMD	−0.458	−1.046	0.131	−1.52	0.127
Shrub cover	0.315	−0.176	0.806	1.26	0.209
Depth to bedrock	0.753	0.187	1.320	2.61	0.009
TPI	−0.275	−0.891	0.342	−0.87	0.383
Probability of knobcone pine self-replacement ~ Fire interval + post-fire CMD + shrub cover + soil clay content + TPI \| sample fire
		95% CI
Predictor	β	Lower	Upper	Z	p
Intercept	0.516	−0.564	1.597	0.936	0.349
Fire interval	9.085	2.908	15.263	2.883	0.004
Post-fire CMD	−2.313	−4.591	−0.036	−1.991	0.046
Shrub cover	−2.296	−4.936	0.345	−1.704	0.088
Soil clay content	−0.303	−2.759	2.152	−0.242	0.809
TPI	0.590	−1.552	2.732	0.540	0.589
Probability of knobcone pine self-replacement ~ Pre-fire canopy seed bank + post-fire CMD + shrub cover + depth to bedrock + TPI \| sample fire
		95% CI
Predictor	β	Lower	Upper	Z	p
Intercept	1.183	0.131	2.236	2.204	0.028
Pre-fire canopy seed bank	2.267	0.842	3.693	3.118	0.002
Post-fire CMD	−0.561	−2.555	1.433	−0.551	0.581
Shrub cover	−0.608	−2.007	0.790	−0.852	0.394
Depth to bedrock	1.538	−0.356	3.432	1.592	0.111
TPI	0.462	−1.098	2.021	0.580	0.562
Percent population recovery ~ Fire interval + post-fire CMD + shrub cover + soil clay content + HLI \| sample fire
		95% CI
Predictor	β	Lower	Upper	Z	p
Intercept	5.425	5.204	5.645	48.16	< 0.001
Fire interval	2.976	2.435	3.518	10.77	< 0.001
Post-fire CMD	−0.906	−1.440	−0.372	−3.33	< 0.001
Shrub cover	−0.227	−0.828	0.373	−0.74	0.458
Soil clay content	−0.383	−0.981	0.215	−1.25	0.210
HLI	0.608	0.133	1.083	2.51	0.012
Percent population recovery ~ Pre-fire canopy seed bank + post-fire CMD + shrub cover + depth to bedrock + TWI + TPI \| sample fire
		95% CI
Predictor	β	Lower	Upper	Z	p
Intercept	6.899	5.843	7.954	12.816	< 0.001
Pre-fire canopy seed bank	2.225	1.587	2.862	6.837	< 0.001
Post-fire CMD	0.740	−0.530	2.009	1.142	0.253
Shrub cover	−0.361	−1.252	0.531	−0.793	0.428
Depth to bedrock	1.528	0.594	2.461	3.206	0.001
TWI	−0.787	−1.608	0.035	−1.876	0.061
TPI	−0.199	−1.275	0.877	−0.363	0.717

CMD Climatic moisture deficit, HLI Heat load index, TPI Topographic position index, TWI Topographic wetness index

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