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Table 6 Post-fire predicted probability of tree mortality equations (i.e., all significant variables included, P ≤ 0.05). Variable definitions: CLS = crown length scorched (%); CVS = crown volume scorched (%); CVK = crown volume killed (%); DBH = diameter at breast height (cm); CKR= cambium kill rating; beetle presence or absence: white fir, sugar pine: 1= attacked, −1 = unattacked; Douglas-fir, Jeffrey pine, and ponderosa pine: 1= attacked, 0 = unattacked1 (see methods for complete descriptions of variables).

From: Predicting Post-Fire Tree Mortality for 12 Western US Conifers Using the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM)

Species Predicted probability of mortality equation
White fir \({P_{\rm{m}}} = {1 \over {[1 + {e^{( - ( - 3{.}5964 + (CL{S^3} \times 0{.}00000628) + (CKR \times 0{.}3019) + (DBH \times 0{.}019) + (beetles \times 0{.}5209)))}}]}}\)
Subalpine fir \({P_{\rm{m}}} = {1 \over {[1 + {e^{( - ( - 2{.}6036 + (CV{S^3} \times 0{.}000004587) + (CKR \times 1{.}3554)))}}]}}\)
Red fir \({P_{\rm{m}}} = {1 \over {[1 + {e^{( - ( - 4{.}7515 + (CL{S^3} \times 0{.}000005989) + (CKR \times 1{.}0668)))}}]}}\)
Incense cedar \({P_{\rm{m}}} = {1 \over {[1 + {e^{( - ( - 5{.}6465 + (CL{S^3} \times 0{.}000007274) + (CKR \times 0{.}5428)))}}]}}\)
Western larch \({P_{\rm{m}}} = {1 \over {[1 + {e^{( - ( - 3{.}8458 + (CV{S^2} \times 0{.}0004) + (CKR \times 0{.}6266)))}}]}}\)
Whitebark pine and lodgepole pine \({P_{\rm{m}}} = {1 \over {[1 + {e^{( - ( - 1{.}4059 + (CV{S^3} \times 0{.}000004459) + (CK{R^2} \times 0{.}2843) - (DBH \times 0{.}0485)))}}]}}\)
Engelmann spruce \({P_{\rm{m}}} = {1 \over {[1 + {e^{( - ( - 2{.}9791 + (CVS \times 0{.}0405) + (CKR \times 1{.}1596)))}}]}}\)
Sugar pine \({P_{\rm{m}}} = {1 \over {[1 + {e^{( - ( - 2{.}7598 + (CL{S^2} \times 0{.}000642) + (CK{R^3} \times 0{.}0386) + (beetles \times 0{.}8485)))}}]}}\)
Ponderosa pines and Jeffrey pine2 \({P_{\rm{m}}} = {1 \over {[1 + {e^{( - ( - 4{.}1914 + (CV{S^2} \times 0{.}000376) + (CKR \times 0{.}513) + (beetles \times 1{.}5873)))}}]}}\)
\({P_{\rm{m}}} = {1 \over {[1 + {e^{( - ( - 3{.}5729 + (CV{K^2} \times 0{.}000576) + (CKR \times 0{.}4573) + (beetles \times 1{.}6075)))}}]}}\)
Douglas-fir \({P_{\rm{m}}} = {1 \over {[1 + {e^{\begin{array}{*{20}c}{( - ( - 1{.}8912 + (CVS \times 0{.}07) - (CV{S^2} \times 0{.}0019) + (CV{S^3} \times 0{.}000018) + (CKR \times 0{.}584)))} \\ { - (DBH \times 0{.}031) - (beetles \times 0{.}7959) + (DBH \times beetles \times 0{.}0492)\quad \quad} \end{array}}}]}}\)
  1. 1 Beetle species in presence or absence data: white fir, attacked by ambrosia beetle; sugar pine, attacked by red turpentine or mountain pine beetle; Jeffrey pine and ponderosa pines, attacked by mountain pine beetle, red turpentine beetle, or ips beetle; Douglas-fir, attacked by Douglas-fir beetle.
  2. 2 First equation uses crown volume scorched and second equation uses crown volume killed or consumed.