Future loss and stability of fire-climate suitability conditions for three environmental site potential types in New Mexico (NM), Texas (TX), and Oklahoma (OK), USA. Colored areas indicate where fire-climate suitability scores met or exceeded the equal test sensitivity (ETSS) logistic threshold for a given ecosystem. A: reference period threshold areas for oaks, mesquite, and pinyon-juniper. B: consensus threshold areas where suitability scores from all models utilizing 2040 to 2069 data from three global climate models met or exceeded ETSS threshold shift northward for oaks and decline sharply for mesquite and pinyon-juniper. C: consensus threshold areas in 2070 to 2099, consensus threshold areas for oaks constrict centrally but expand south and farther north; consensus threshold areas for both mesquite and pinyon-juniper become smaller and more isolated.