Fig. 4
Bayesian posterior distributions for models of new frog abundance with reference trees on the left and 2021 prescribed fire trees on the right. Top: response before the 2021 fires. Middle: response during the time in each treatment 0–6 weeks after a prescribed fire happened. Bottom: response during the time in each treatment 6+ weeks following a 2021 prescribed fire. Each graph represents the model posterior prediction for the number of new frogs in trees during the time period and treatment condition. Bolded dashed lines show the posterior distribution of the average effects without fire (black), for the time period 0–6 weeks after a prescribed fire (red), and for the 6+ weeks following a prescribed fire (green). In the background are the posterior prediction for actual trees and sampling interval by fire treatment. The X axis presents the possible posterior estimates of the number of new frogs and their corresponding probability density is presented in the Y axis. The 0–6-week post-fire model (center) indicates a higher chance of finding more new frogs per tree in trees in areas that burned in 2021 (center right) than without fire in 2021 (center left), but both treatments are similar during the other two temporal conditions