Climate influences on future fire severity: a synthesis of climate-fire interactions and impacts on fire regimes, high-severity fire, and forests in the western United States

Wasserman, Tzeidle N.; Mueller, Stephanie E.

doi:10.1186/s42408-023-00200-8

Fire Ecology

Table 2 Studies and data used in our synthesis with geography, climate data, and model information

From: Climate influences on future fire severity: a synthesis of climate-fire interactions and impacts on fire regimes, high-severity fire, and forests in the western United States

Study	Geography	Forest type	Forecast time period	Elevation (m)	Study extent (km)	GCMs in model	Climate scenario	Climate Variables used in model	Model Used
Cassell et al. 2019. Widespread severe wildfires under climate change lead to increased forest homogeneity in dry mixed-conifer forests	Southern Blue Mountains of central Oregon	Mixed conifer	2010–2100	719–2744	9388	Range of 20 CIMP5	Contemporary, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5	maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average precipitation, daily average wind speed, wind direction	LANDIS II Dynamic Fire and Fuels extension
Hansen et al. 2020. Can wildland fire management alter 21st-century subalpine fire and forests in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, USA?	Grand Teton NP, WY	Mixed conifer	2018–2098	1600–3400	400	CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M	RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5	KBDI, daily temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, solar radiation	iLand
Honig and Fulé 2012. Simulating effects of climate change and ecological restoration on fire behavior in a southwestern USA ponderosa pine forest	Kaibab National Forest, AZ	P. pine	2070–2099	2067–2184	7	CSIRO:MK3 (least extreme model); MPIM:ECHAM5 (most extreme model)	A1B	temperature, relative humidity, 1-h fuel moisture, 10-h fuel moisture, 100-h fuel moisture, wind speed	ANOVA, Tukey HSD mean comparison
Hurteau 2017. Quantifying the Carbon Balance of Forest Restoration and Wildfire under Projected Climate in the Fire-Prone Southwestern US	Northern AZ, Camp Navajo	P. pine	Early (2010–2019), mid (2050–2059), and late (2090–2099) century	2164	116	Range of 41 CIMP5	RCP 8.5	Mean monthly minimum temperature, mean monthly maximum temperature, mean monthly precipitation	LANDIS II Dynamic Fire and Fuels extension
Krofcheck et al. 2017a. Prioritizing forest fuels treatments based on the probability of high-severity fire restores adaptive capacity in Sierran forests	Sierra Nevada, CA	Oak, p. pine, mixed conifer	1950–2100	300–3000	875	CIMP5: CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, FGOAL-g2S, GFDL, MICROC5-ESM 2	RCP 8.5	temperature, precipitation	LANDIS II Dynamic Fire and Fuels extension
Krofcheck et al. 2017b. Restoring surface fire stabilizes forest carbon under extreme fire weather in the Sierra Nevada	Sierra Nevada, CA	Mixed conifer	1980–2015 to 2100	300–3000	875	NA	contemporary, extreme	temperature, precipitation	LANDIS II Dynamic Fire and Fuels extension
Krofcheck et al. 2019. Optimizing Forest Management Stabilizes Carbon Under Projected Climate and Wildfires	Sangre De Cristo mtns, NM	PJ, P. Pine, Mixed conifer	2000–2050	1900–3700	450	CIMP5: CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, FGOAL-g2S, GFDL, MICROC5-ESM 2	RCP 8.5	temperature, precipitation	LANDIS II Dynamic Fire and Fuels extension
Liang et al. 2018. Large-scale restoration increases carbon stability under projected climate and wildfire regimes	Sierra Nevada, CA	Forested areas	2010–2100	165–4230	34,000	GFDL, CCSM3, CNRM	A2	temperature, precipitation	LANDIS II Dynamic Fire and Fuels extension
Loehman et al. 2018. Can Land Management Buffer Impacts of Climate Changes and Altered Fire Regimes on Ecosystems of the Southwestern United States?	Jemez Mountains, NM; Kaibab Plateau, AZ	Ponderosa pine; dry-mixed conifer	2015–2115	1500–3500 (Jemez), 1439–2830 (Kaibab)	1800 (Jemez), 3350 (Kaibab)	CCSM4 (warm-dry), HadGEM2ES (hot-arid)	RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5	temperature, precipitation	LANDIS II Dynamic Fire and Fuels extension, FireBGCv2
Loudermilk et al. 2017. Bending the carbon curve: fire management for carbon resilience under climate change	Lake Tahoe Basin, CA, NV	Jeffrey pine and dry-mixed-conifer	2010–2110	1897–3320	850	GFDL	A2 (high), B1 (moderate)	temperature, precipitation	LANDIS II Dynamic Fire and Fuels extension
Lutz et al. 2009. Climate, lightning ignitions, and fire severity in Yosemite National Park, California, USA	Yosemite NP, CA	P. pine, dry mixed conifer	2020–2049	657–3997	30.27	HadCM3	B1	1 April SWE	Linear regression
O’Conner et al. 2020. Projected Climate-Fire Interactions Drive Forest to Shrubland Transition on an Arizona Sky Island	Sky islands. Huachuca mtns and Madrean Sky islands, AZ	Forests and woodlands	2005–2055	1199–2855	not specified — Huachuca Mountains	CanESM2, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES	RCP 8.5	maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average precipitation	FireBGCv2
O’Donnell et al. 2018. Forest restoration as a strategy to mitigate climate impacts on wildfire, vegetation, and water in semiarid forests	Kaibab Plateau, AZ	Forests and woodlands	2010–2110	1439–2830	330	17 GCMs	RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5	temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, precipitation	LANDIS II Dynamic Fire and Fuels extension
Parks et al. 2016. How will climate change affect wildland fire severity in the western US?	Western US	Forested ecosystems	2040–2069	Conterminous	500km² hexels; 27 ecoregions	20 GCMs	RCP 8.5	Actual Evapotranspiration (AET), water deficit (WD), Annual precipitation (PPT), soil moisture (SMO), snow water equivalent (SWO)	Boosted regression trees
Parks et al. 2018b. Analog-based fire regime and vegetation shifts in mountainous regions of the western US	Western US	Forested ecosystems in mountainous regions	Early (2011–2040,) mid (2041–2070), late (2071–2100)	Conterminous	1km²; 17 ecoregions	15 CMIP5 GCMs	RCP 8.5	Climatic moisture deficit (CMD) and Evapotranspiration (ET); focus on water balance	LANDFIRE data. Next Gen Fire Severity Mapping
Parks et al. 2019. Living on the edge: trailing edge forests at risk of fire-facilitated conversion to non-forest	Western US	Forested ecosytems	Mid-century 2040–2070	Conterminous	1 km pixel; 8 ecoregions	15 CMIP5 GCMs	RCP 8.5	Climatic moisture deficit (CMD) and Evapotranspiration (ET); focus on water balance	LANDFIRE data. Next Gen Fire Severity Mapping
Serra-Diaz et al. 2018. Disequilibrium of fire-prone forests sets the stage for a rapid decline in conifer dominance during the 21st century	Klamath, OR and CA	Mixed conifer	2015–2100	100–2000	29,400	ACCESS 8.5 (much hotter-drier), CanESM2 (much hotter-wetter), CNRM-CM5 4.5 (hotter-wetter), MIROC5 2.6 (mild hot-wetter)	RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5	temperature, precipitation	LANDIS II Dynamic Fire and Fuels extension

Back to article page