Fig. 4
From: Fire regimes of the Southern Appalachians may radically shift under climate change
The interannual variability in the simulated annual burned area (ha/year) and the total area burned (ha) generated by the SCRPPLE fire model, compared to the observed historical burned area. Transparent gray dots represent individual replicates, solid red dots represent the observed data (Short 2021). R2 represents the predictive power of the combined replicates in explaining the annual variation in the observed data. In this study, we used the LANDIS-II model to simulate the Southern Appalachians, USA, under four CMIP5 climate scenarios representing increased drought trend, increased drought variability, their combination, and a scenario with neither increase. These simulations were compared to the historical climate and each other to understand changes in fire patterns and landscape-scale changes in species composition and biomass