Fig. 3

Estimated likelihood of fire regime change under different RCP scenarios a Median of central values of the likelihood of fire regime change for year 2100 under three RCP scenarios. b Climate sensitivity of fire regime change for each biome based on the slope between the estimated likelihood of a fire regime change (%) and the amount of radiative forcing across the three RCP scenarios (Wm⁻²). The higher values represent a greater climate sensitivity and increased fire regime likelihood moving from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5