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Fire Ecology

Table 1 Sources of Uncertainty in Survey Estimates

From: Assessing changes in global fire regimes

Past

 

Current

 

Future

 

Management

 

Sources of uncertainty

%

Sources of uncertainty

%

Sources of uncertainty

%

Sources of uncertainty

%

Limited proxy-paleo data

23

Spatial variability

31

Vegetation shift

12

Political and socio-economic

22

Spatial variability

17

Limited data

17

Ecosystem interactions and feedbacksb

12

Capacity and effectiveness of management and intervention

13

Proxy resolution

15

Combustion/severity

8

Climate change

10

Climate change

11

Model limitation

11

Small fire detection/remote sensing

7

Political and socio-economic

8

Ecosystem interactions and feedbacks

10

Human influencea

11

Human activity

8

Model limitation

7

Technology developments

6

Proxy reliability

8

Recent changes

4

Fire management and intervention

7

Science and management connection

4

Temporal variability

6

  

Land use change

6

Vegetation state

4

Chronological

5

  

Precipitation

6

  
  1. This table presents the major sources of uncertainty identified by respondents for each section of the survey. The percentages represent the proportion of responses within each category for the respective sections. Note that the table includes only the significant sources of uncertainty, and the columns may not sum up to 100% due to the omission of less prominent factors
  2. aE.g., Fire management history, land use history, etc.
  3. bE.g., Climate-vegetation dynamics, albedo and new vegetation, vegetation-fire interaction, fuel-ignition relationships, climate-human intervention, climate-vegetation feedbacks
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