Fig. 4
From: Wildfire probability estimated from recent climate and fine fuels across the big sagebrush region
Comparison of mean observed and predicted annual wildfire probability. Panels show the mean observed (black circles) and predicted (blue triangles) annual wildfire probability for each percentile of a mean temperature, b annual precipitation, c proportion summer precipitation, d aboveground biomass of annual forbs and grasses, and e aboveground biomass of perennial forbs and grasses. Corresponding fire return intervals (FRI) are shown on the secondary (right) y-axis. Data were binned by percentile (i.e., 100 bins) of a given predictor variable, and the x-axis (a–e) shows the mean value of each percentile of that variable. To illustrate, the right-most black circle in d shows the mean observed wildfire probability across all pixels where biomass of annuals is between the 99th and 100th percentile, and the rightmost blue triangle in that panel shows the mean predicted wildfire probability for those same pixels. Each point represents the mean of ~ 250,000 observations (i.e., 1% of the entire dataset). In f, the mean observed and predicted annual wildfire probability values shown in a–e are plotted against each other (1:1 line shown for reference)