Fig. 6
From: Wildfire probability estimated from recent climate and fine fuels across the big sagebrush region
Evaluation of model sensitivity to key climate and vegetation variables. The panels show the distribution, across pixels, of the change in the predicted number of times a location will burn per 100 years in response to a 2 °C and b 5 °C increases in the mean temperature and 20% decreases and 20% increases in c, d annual precipitation; e, f proportion summer precipitation; g, h biomass of annuals; and i, j biomass of perennials. The dotted lines show the minimum and maximum changes. Individual values shown in the histogram are based on the mean change in predicted wildfire probability across years at a pixel in response to the change in a given predictor variable. The numbers on the panels present the mean change in the expected burned area per year across the study area, relative to the annual burned area predicted under observed (ambient) conditions. We would like to underscore that these are examinations of model sensitivity and are not climate change projections. Ongoing work will integrate this model into a plant community model that will simulate climate and vegetation changes under climate change