Table 1 Description of the independent variables used to predict fire occurrence. LFMC = Live Fuel Moisture Content and IP = Ignition Probability.
From: Modelling Fire Ignition Probability from Satellite Estimates of Live Fuel Moisture Content
Variable | Description | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
LFMCt−1 | LFMC corresponding to the 8-day period prior to the period including the fire date. | The lower the LFMC is one or two weeks before the fire detection, the higher IP is expected. |
LFMCt−2 | LFMC corresponding to the 8-day period prior to LFMCt −1. | |
Difference | Moisture variation between two previous periods to the fire date. | The more the moisture decreases before the fire detection, the higher IP is expected. |
Slope | Moisture gradient between the maximum LFMC value and the period before the fire date. | The larger the moisture decrease is with respect to the maximum LFMC spring record for the same temporal and spatial placement, the higher IP is expected. |
Anomaly | Departure of LFMC values before the fire date from the average value of that period during the time series. | The lower LFMC is recorded before the fire detection comparing to the mean recorded for the rest of the years, the higher IP is expected. |