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Table 3 Coefficients and goodness of fit of the best fit seasonal ARIMA models for prediction of DR for Mexico, for the period 2003 to 2014. Veg_region: vegetation and region; ARIMA: best fit ARIMA models of order (ar, dif, ma) × (sar, sdif, sma)S, where ar is the autoregressive order, dif is the integrated order, ma is the mean average order, sar, sdif, and sma are the seasonal autoregressive, integrated, and mean average order, respectively; and S is time span of repeating seasonal pattern (12 months). ari are autoregressive coefficients of the order i, mai are moving average coefficients of the order i, sari are seasonal autoregressive coefficients of the order i, and smai are seasonal moving average coefficients of the order i; intercept: seasonal ARIMA model intercept, R2 adj: adjusted R2, RMSE: root mean square error, AIC: Standard AIC, AG: Agriculture, ARBSV: Arborous Secondary Vegetation, DTROPF: Deciduous Tropical Forest, PAS: Pastureland, PTROPF: Perennial Tropical Forest, SHSV: Shrubby Secondary Vegetation, TFOR: Temperate Forest, NW: Northwest region, NE: Northeast region, C: Center region, and S: South region

From: Temporal patterns of active fire density and its relationship with a satellite fuel greenness index by vegetation type and region in Mexico during 2003–2014

Veg_region ARIMA ar 1 ar 2 ar 3 ar 4 ar 5 ar 6 ma 1 ma 2 sar 1 sar 2 sar 3 sar 4 sma 1 sma 2 sma 3 intercept R2 adj RMSE AIC
AG_C (2,0,1) × (0,0,2) 1.623 −0.87      −0.674       0.3246 0.5201   71.2447 0.86 18.8 857
AG_NE (1,0,1) × (2,0,0) 0.6421       0.3577   0.4178 0.3305       67.9347 0.74 11.6 780.8
AG_NW (6,0,2) × (0,0,3) −0.593 0.3134 0.3828 −0.451 −0.206 0.089 1.6016 1      0.6511 0.7743 0.5639 78.5641 0.83 8.9 771
AG_S (2,0,1) × (2,0,0) 1.4888 −0.667      −0.689   0.2634 0.4055       54.7732 0.70 29.2 912.6
ARBSV_C (2,0,2) × (0,0,2) 1.6727 −0.932      −0.984 0.2711      0.1872 0.555   58.8577 0.84 16.2 835
ARBSV_NE (5,0,1) × (1,0,0) 1.2508 −0.581 −0.075 0.171 −0.302   −0.214   0.1314        53.7640 0.77 7.1 710.4
ARBSV_NW (3,0,0) × (2,0,0) 0.6589 −0.015 0.076       0.2471 0.7095       69.0646 0.89 15.1 842.5
ARBSV_S (3,0,0) × (2,0,0) 0.7507 −0.195 0.0099       0.3245 0.4445       49.0004 0.66 22.7 879.7
DTROPF_C (5,0,1) × (2,0,3) 0.0683 0.1381 −0.093 −0.017 0.0863     0.0003 0.995    0.2855 −0.758 −0.08 65.1418 0.90 23.9 927
DTROPF_NE (2,0,0) × (2,0,0) 1.0509 −0.347        0.3229 0.3404       57.3068 0.72 27.1 900.2
DTROPF_NW 2,0,0) × (2,0,0) 0.5344 0.0891        0.2382 0.7093       66.8218 0.85 36.9 967.7
DTROPF_S (2,0,1) × (2,0,0) 1.5354 −0.689      −0.854   0.3504 0.3615       51.024 0.70 14.9 816.1
PAS_C (2,0,1) × (0,0,2) 1.6455 −0.891      −0.697       0.2478 0.492   66.9155 0.86 20.6 864.9
PAS_NE (1,0,0) × (2,0,0) 0.728         0.3816 0.3828       64.2352 0.65 16.2 827.2
PAS_NW (2,0,1) × (0,0,2) 1.5273 −0.771      −0.594       0.535 0.5502   82.9653 0.79 16.7 836.4
PAS_S (2,0,0) × (2,0,0) 0.7707 −0.172        0.3609 0.4003       54.1157 0.67 32.8 930.7
PTROPF_C (5,0,2) × (0,0,2) 2.216 −2.051 0.7989 −0.12 −0.054   −1.718 0.9993      0.2919 0.4685   53.2126 0.86 11.9 795.5
PTROPF_NE (5,0,1) × (1,0,1) 1.0465 −0.316 0.0754 0.0432 −0.11   −0.662   0.9999     −0.985    46.8883 0.64 3.6 641.9
PTROPF_NW (3,0,2) × (1,0,2) 0.1458 −0.672 0.5883     0.4425 1 0.9889     −1.135 0.5149   58.4015 0.88 26.4 936.6
PTROPF_S (1,0,1) × (2,0,0) 0.3176       0.4732   0.3801 0.3366       49.1263 0.60 13.3 798.8
SHSV_C (2,0,1) × (0,0,2) 1.6326       −0.68       0.2324 0.568   66.1444 0.84 21.1 870.7
SHSV_NE (4,0,1) × (4,0,0) 1.3012 −0.637 0.3147 −0.215    −0.201   0.2713 0.1131 0.314 0.021     67.2066 0.79 10.8 774.4
SHSV_NW (2,0,1) × (0,0,2) 1.5459 −0.79      −0.561       0.4084 0.58   78.6086 0.81 16.5 834.8
SHSV_S (2,0,1) × (2,0,0) 1.5005 −0.67      −0.735   0.2529 0.4262       52.1467 0.68 23.3 880.2
TFOR_C (3,0,2) × (3,0,2) 1.5236 −1.551 0.6111     −0.957 1 −0.076 0.6902 0.372   0.0685 −0.356   58.2776 0.90 6.5 734.5
TFOR_NE 1,0,1) × (2,0,0) 0.6455       0.501   0.357 0.3603       58.7626 0.77 9.4 749.6
TFOR_NW (6,0,2) × (1,0,2) 0.719 0.3792 −0.301 0.0216 −0.051 0.05 0.0289 −0.411 0.9877     −0.563 −0.061   70.5062 0.90 8.4 765
TFOR_S (1,0,0) × (1,0,0) 0.6886         0.7728        61.1325 0.74 7.9 725