Table 3 Coefficients and goodness of fit of the best fit seasonal ARIMA models for prediction of DR for Mexico, for the period 2003 to 2014. Veg_region: vegetation and region; ARIMA: best fit ARIMA models of order (ar, dif, ma) × (sar, sdif, sma)S, where ar is the autoregressive order, dif is the integrated order, ma is the mean average order, sar, sdif, and sma are the seasonal autoregressive, integrated, and mean average order, respectively; and S is time span of repeating seasonal pattern (12 months). ar_i are autoregressive coefficients of the order i, ma_i are moving average coefficients of the order i, sar_i are seasonal autoregressive coefficients of the order i, and sma_i are seasonal moving average coefficients of the order i; intercept: seasonal ARIMA model intercept, R² adj: adjusted R², RMSE: root mean square error, AIC: Standard AIC, AG: Agriculture, ARBSV: Arborous Secondary Vegetation, DTROPF: Deciduous Tropical Forest, PAS: Pastureland, PTROPF: Perennial Tropical Forest, SHSV: Shrubby Secondary Vegetation, TFOR: Temperate Forest, NW: Northwest region, NE: Northeast region, C: Center region, and S: South region

Veg_region

ARIMA

ar ₁

ar ₂

ar ₃

ar ₄

ar ₅

ar ₆

ma ₁

ma ₂

sar ₁

sar ₂

sar ₃

sar ₄

sma ₁

sma ₂

sma ₃

intercept

R² adj

RMSE

AIC